Today's market was really strong, with a "big red" start to October! The stock index even broke through the 5-day line, 10-day line, 30-day line, half-year line, and 20-day line all at once. Breaking five lines in one day, it was truly impressive. This kind of trend is actually quite normal. The extreme volume contraction before the holiday already made the market ripe for a strong rebound. Meanwhile, international markets originally had a weakening tendency, but after a sudden news announcement, international markets strengthened, especially the international commodities market, which greatly stimulated market sentiment. As a result, after the holiday, under the leadership of resource stocks, the stock index directly formed a large upward gap. If this strength of rebound can easily stand above the 20-day line without encountering any special negative news (such as an unexpected sharp fall in international commodities or a significant drop in US stocks), there’s no doubt that the market will test the 60-day line next. However, investors need to be aware that the market still has some distance from completing its adjustment and entering a medium-term uptrend. In such a market situation, it's necessary to maintain a certain level of calmness. Currently, we are in a critical period of technical recovery. The market may stage a temporary rally or decline, but only after the technical indicators fully improve can the market enter a new, stable upward channel. This means that before effectively breaking through the 60-day line, the market will still experience fluctuations. Moreover, this wave of strong rebound is led by stocks benefiting from the rise in international commodities. Once the futures of commodities weaken suddenly, the impact on the market cannot be underestimated. Therefore, strategically, investors should still focus on long-term strategies, appropriately control their positions while paying attention to short-term risks. For the mid-to-long term, I personally believe that we are still in the early stages of a bull market. Over the next one to two years, the market still has considerable room for growth. Thus, for those stocks that require mid-to-long term deployment, preparations for such deployment should be made. At the same time, high selling and low buying should be done to reduce costs. In October, what investors need to do first is to review their positions and the types of stocks they hold. Before the overall layout is completed, the position should be moderate. Attention should be paid to buying during declines and selling at highs. Overall timing should be grasped when the market basically completes the repair of the upward channel, then the position layout should be completed. It can be foreseen that once this layout is completed, one can basically hold the stocks confidently until the next adjustment approaches.
The "Gold Game" exchange platform (the "Gold Game" exchange email: [email protected], platform exchange motto: equality, no threshold, everyone together playing a technical exchange platform. Here there are no teachers, only friends and "warriors". Three types of questions are not answered: 1. Direct consultation on individual stocks; 2. Excessively sensitive issues; 3. Private issues.): Letter: For more than half a year, I have always been following your blog, especially your prediction of the bull market trend before and after last Spring Festival, which I admire greatly. At the same time, I also admire your patriotic integrity. But today, for the first time, I am writing to you to discuss my feelings about this recent stock market. The article that left the deepest impression on me recently was your post on July 30th, where you confirmed that the bull market had indeed arrived, and that the current phase was just the initial stage of the bull market. A target of 4000 points, or even surpassing the 6124 point mark next year, was not impossible. This article came right after the crash on July 29th, giving so many investors who read your blog every day immense confidence! And just three days later, the top of the medium-term adjustment was established, leading to a cruel sustained collapse that trapped so many investors who were confident in the bull market. My feeling now is that anyone can lose their cool because of past achievements, even great men. Precisely because of your successful prediction of the bull market rebound last year and before the Spring Festival, the number of ordinary investors following you and your fame skyrocketed. But precisely because of this, countless people are following your blog, and you fully recognize the influence of your article predictions and judgment on so many people. Now, my last hope, along with countless other ordinary investors, is that the big trend of the stock market that you keep saying remains unchanged can come true. You think that a 15-20% adjustment is normal in a bull market, but the premise of this statement is "bull market". But is the bull market still here? Just three days after you confirmed that the current phase was the initial stage of the bull market, the medium-term top was established, followed by a cruel continuous collapse. No matter how you look at it, the fact is there. When you said this, you were blinded by the bullish atmosphere. I feel that this 20% adjustment and the 20% adjustment nightmare of May 30th taste different. The tail end of May 30th saw a strong rebound, but this 20% adjustment was followed by a weak rebound, which feels like the 20% fall from the peak of 6124 points, a feeling of not wanting to look back. Of course, there will be a rebound later, but it might not be a bull market anymore. What I truly worry about is this, judging from the smell of this 20% fall. Today, I saw in your blog post that some friends wrote to you saying that if it weren't for your optimistic prediction earlier, he might have stopped his losses earlier. Actually, I didn't stop my losses either because of your previous correct success and optimism about the bull market. I hope that your statement that a 20% adjustment is normal in a bull market and that it will lead to better future gains turns out to be correct again, which would be a great relief. Of course, you also said that we should make our own judgments and not completely rely on you. Your words are your own judgment, your system. But when you say these words, you forget the huge influence and responsibility of your previous very rational recognition of the results you've achieved and the countless ordinary retail investors who sincerely and earnestly exchange letters with you. You understand the influence and responsibility of your judgment better. My worry is that the bull market is gone, and I find your judgment too orthodox, too positive, textbook-like. Although you correctly judged the rebound bull market since the bottom last year, and according to your words, too few people have such a judgment as you. I naively feel that your judgment overlooks the ugly side of the main force's human nature. They are not saviors of the stock market or the country. On the contrary, they come for profit. Since this bull market has already made them so much money, would they continue to push the bull market higher given the extremely high price-earnings ratios of many stocks, even loss-making companies experiencing explosive growth, and the risk of a reversal in national policies? Would they act as real liberators? It is precisely because of the main force's profit-driven nature that led to the bull market started after absorbing enough chips at the bottom last year, driven by national policy. Because of this, my concern is that this continuous collapse is due to the main force's firm decision to exit, because the wind of liquidity supporting this bull market has clearly weakened. Although it may not turn around completely, the obvious reduction in wind force is a huge threat. So this time, the main force adopted a seemingly bull market adjustment but actually had the flavor of turning around and exiting like at the 6124 point. I fear that what follows won't be the initial stage of the bull market as you said, but rather a weak rebound and a shaking downward trend, then hovering at a low position, losing the bull nature like a bear market, and even cruelly falling back below 2000 points waiting for the next policy opportunity. Brother Zhan, the above is my sincere thoughts and exchanges. Although I don't understand technology, the stock market is not purely technical, it is something operated by people! Crazy rises, irrational collapses, etc., are all due to the huge influence of human nature, sometimes this influence makes technology ineffective, just like the big bear market in 2008 made many technical experts' analysis ineffective, bottom divergence, further divergence, and eventually there will be a correct time, all support lines like moving averages and trend lines are fragile! Moving average multi-line arrangement, just like this time at 3478 points, this is exactly where I often get confused about technology! Brother Zhan, I am an ordinary investor, with only over 100,000 yuan in funds. Today's letter to you is not complaining, nor disrespecting your character, but sincerely exchanging ideas and kindly reminding you to reflect on the impact of this systemic risk on so many ordinary weak investors who follow your blog. If you have time, please reply briefly. I hope my words in today's letter can be corrected by you, that would be my gain. An ordinary investor who respects and admires Brother Zhan!
Exchange on August 19, 2009 at 9 PM: First, the judgment that "we are merely in the early stages of a bull market" is the result of systematic thought, and many elements have been carefully considered and deliberated upon. Therefore, unless there is a new major directional change, this judgment will not change. Regarding the future of China's stock market, it must be compared with China's economy and the goals the authorities want to achieve using the stock market. As long as we grasp these two fundamentals and understand the technical and capital conditions, making judgments about China's stock market is not difficult. However, never confuse the early stages of a bull market with the phased adjustments of the market; these are two concepts, two entirely different market cycles. The former is measured in years, while the latter in months. Discussions on short-term risks were elaborated in subsequent blog posts, which are unrelated to the overall trend. My blog, frankly speaking, retains mainly those who wish to earnestly learn stock market techniques and engage in exchanges. Those hoping for direct operational tips probably wouldn't stay long. My blog isn't the hottest, but relatively calm and objective. To be honest, such market conditions wouldn't heat up my mind, which might underestimate me somewhat. Whether an investor profits or not shouldn't be determined by my blog, which overestimates the role of the blog, and being close to losses wouldn't be far off. I consistently advocate that investors think independently and improve themselves. Each blog post's discussion is a self-exchange and learning process. Blogs aren't meant to be believed but to provide thoughts. If one loses money due to the blog, one should learn from mistakes. Bull markets aren't meant to be believed or disbelieved but judged; bull markets aren't measured by one or two months of adjustment but by years. Profitability isn't determined by the rise and fall of the market but by one's operational ability. Without understanding these principles, another round of the bull market starting in 2005 might still result in losses, which is one of the fundamental reasons why many people fail to make money despite years of trading. Additionally, the judgment of the overall market and individual stocks are two different scopes. A market worth tens of trillions can't be controlled by any institution or group except the state, and even the state needs time to control such a market. Thus, don't overestimate the power of institutions nor underestimate their capabilities. For individual stocks, particularly small and medium-sized ones, manipulation by major players with more funds is relatively easy. These two concepts must be distinguished; otherwise, facing the market without knowing its size or scope, how can profitability be achieved? Not knowing which factors affect the market and how to judge them? Take the most watched PE ratio, for example. It's currently less than 25 times, and based on this year's performance growth, it's estimated to be less than 20 times next year and reach 15 times the year after. Such a PE ratio in such a robustly developing economy is abnormal. With the abundant liquidity in the market, I can't find a reason for the market to enter a bearish phase. Regarding the long-term bearish market, if anyone can present counterarguments to my previous bullish market argument, I'd be very interested to hear them. "The Gold Game III" has already been released and will soon be available. I believe some new stock judgment methods will be presented to comrades. Regarding the stock market, I haven't seen a more comprehensive and reasonable judgment than mine. My operation system is an organic system, which I'll systematically elaborate on in the fifth book of "The Gold Game." I can definitely say that the theory of "The Gold Game" judging the stock market will be the most comprehensive theoretical system in the books of the Chinese stock market and even the current stock market literature. For investors, having one's own system is the primary condition for making money; everything else is just talk. If one still relies on others or blogs for profit, then accepting losses is a lesson well learned. Harsh words but sound reasoning; I hope comrades can understand that independence is a prerequisite for stock trading. Finally, I sincerely thank comrades for their candid exchanges. Regardless of anything, this platform continues to exist because of sincere exchanges, which is the vitality of the "Gold Game" exchange platform. Related theme articles: 6. Dice game (continued 5) - gansimu569's column - CSDN Blog Desktop games - a new form of leisure entertainment