The home of Steve Jobs in a particularly quiet neighborhood in Palo Alto, Silicon Valley, became the place where Gates and Page visited Jobs last spring when he was critically ill. At the Alta Mesa Cemetery, a condolence book was prepared for visitors mourning Jobs. Jobs rests among lush green trees and grass.
Reported by Zheng Jun from Silicon Valley, USA. Although it's only February, California has already entered spring. A tranquil neighborhood in Palo Alto, a regular two-story residential house. Compared to the luxurious villas around, this red-brick blue-roof house appears somewhat shabby, with several tall plants blocking the main door. The tightly closed windows and white curtains completely block the view. The front yard has just been mowed, and the exposed soil emits a fresh grassy smell. Small unnamed flowers bloom by the railings.
Everything seems so ordinary, as if just an ordinary family resides here. But five months ago, this place gathered global attention. Policemen and security guards gently patrolled the streets, and strangers kept coming here, placing flowers at the railing, leaving cards, lighting candles, or setting down apples because this was the former home of Steve Jobs, the former CEO of Apple.
It was on October 5th last year when everyone was excited about the newly released iPhone 4S that they heard an anticipated yet shocking news: Jobs had passed away. Anticipated because Jobs had fought cancer for years and had just resigned from his position as Apple's CEO due to health issues; shocking because no one wanted to accept the fact that this giant who had changed the world multiple times and led technological trends was gone.
But this time, the legendary figure humorously nicknamed "Jobs-who-doesn't-die" was truly gone. His family secretly held his funeral. Memorial services were held separately at Stanford's small chapel and Apple headquarters by his close friends and employees. While global media tried their best to recall Jobs' contributions to the technology industry, they all asked the same question: What will become of Apple without Jobs?
The Rise of the Apple Empire
Ten days after Jobs' passing, global Apple fans again rushed to purchase the newly launched iPhone 4S, showing no less enthusiasm than before. They called this seemingly unchanged new model the iPhone For Steve, viewing it as the last product personally crafted by Jobs. The voice assistant Siri then sparked even greater enthusiasm, with almost every user eager to open Siri upon receiving the new device, conversing with this revolutionary voice assistant in various accents.
Twenty days after Jobs' passing, the only authorized official biography of him, "Steve Jobs," was globally released simultaneously. This book, which meticulously records Jobs' brilliant life and mental journey, quickly climbed to the top of the bestseller list. The recorded trivia became topics of interest for the media.
Three months after Jobs' passing, Apple announced its financial results for the first quarter of the 2012 fiscal year ending December last year; during these three months after his departure, Apple's financial report was even more astonishing. Revenue of $46.3 billion, a 73% increase year-over-year; net profit of $13 billion, an 118% increase year-over-year. Last year, iPhone sales reached 93 million units, capturing nearly 80% of market profits with just 6% market share. The revenue from the iPhone alone surpassed the entire Microsoft.
Even crazier than Apple's performance was its stock price. When Jobs passed, Apple's stock was at $376, now it has surged to $513, with a market capitalization of $480 billion, ranking first globally. According to media comparisons, Apple's market value is equivalent to the sum of Microsoft and Google, even five times that of e-commerce giant Amazon. And Apple's nearly $100 billion cash reserve is mind-blowing.
Jobs personally founded Apple, and like a savior, returned to bring the once-nearly-bankrupt company to the peak of the global tech industry. Under his leadership, Apple grew from a small boat in Silicon Valley into a giant aircraft carrier. After his departure, this behemoth continued to move forward at an astonishing speed. But was this due to Apple's inherent great momentum or the inertia of Jobs' previous push? Perhaps the answer will gradually surface in the next few years.
Limited Growth Potential
Stock prices reflect investors' expectations, and the continuous rise in Apple's stock price somewhat indicates the market's optimism about Apple's future growth. Due to Apple's financial reports repeatedly surpassing Wall Street's expectations, it pushed the stock price wave after wave. But for Apple, which has already reached the pinnacle of the industry, what growth prospects remain to drive the stock price higher?
Thanks to Jobs' foresight, Apple revolutionized the entertainment, mobile, and reading industries with the iPod, iPhone, and iPad trio. Among them, the greatest product is undoubtedly the iPhone, which pioneered the true smartphone era, opened the curtain on mobile internet, and brought enormous revenue and profits to Apple.
The iPhone contributes 53% of Apple's revenue and 70% of its profits, making it Apple's strongest business. In the first quarter, Apple sold 37.04 million iPhones, capturing 24% of the global smartphone market. Selling just one model per year, being the most expensive smartphone, achieving such sales and market share is almost an unimaginable feat. But this raises the question: How much growth potential does the iPhone still have?
Gartner provided their perspective: The strong sales of the iPhone 4S were largely due to a 15-month gap between new products, leading consumers who had raised expectations due to the iPhone 4 to go crazy over the new model upon its release. In the upcoming quarters, the market share of the iPhone may gradually decline.
Increasing Market Pressure
Releasing a new product annually, facing the encirclement of Android phones, and the offensive of Windows Phone, it feels like a "sword of Damocles" hanging over the iPhone. With the continuous development of smartphone technology, missing the trend can quickly lead to obsolescence. Apple must ensure that each iPhone stays at the forefront of technology, providing superior software and hardware experience compared to competitors, to maintain its current market position; otherwise, the "iPhone" halo might gradually fade.
The market situation of the iPad shares many similarities with the iPhone. Apple's leading advantage is gradually shrinking. Since its launch in early 2010, for a long time, the iPad was synonymous with tablet computers, dominating the market. However, this was largely due to the weak competition from rivals; Android tablets failed to provide competitive user experiences, and Microsoft tablets hadn't even truly started.
However, the appearance of Amazon's Kindle Fire sounded the alarm for Apple. This was a truly popular non-iPad tablet. After its launch at the end of last year, its sales quickly approached 4 million units, rapidly capturing 14% of the market share, surpassing Samsung to take the second spot. The Kindle Fire, which launched mid-November, achieved one-tenth of the iPad's annual sales in just one and a half months.
From the rumors surrounding the iPad 3 (display and camera), the third-generation iPad seems more like a feature upgrade rather than a revolutionary product. Although the iPad still holds advantages in technology and user experience, in the long term, its competitive edge against rivals is indeed gradually shrinking. The Kindle Fire, with its differentiated competition, is also devouring Apple's potential low-end market.
Designer Culture is Key
Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates pointed out that the success of Apple's integrated hardware-software closed strategy was largely due to Jobs. Without Jobs, can Apple continue to maintain its designer-prioritized corporate culture, delivering superior user experiences and staying at the forefront of the industry? Jobs, with his immense personal charm, attracted many excellent talents to form Apple's management team. Can Cook, with a vastly different style, retain these talents after Jobs' departure?
Currently, Apple significantly leads other competitors in hardware design, user interface, and ecosystem, thanks to the designer culture Jobs instilled in Apple. Compared to the engineer culture of other innovative companies and the salesperson culture of mature companies, Apple is a designer-prioritized company. Jobs himself possessed a high aesthetic taste, granting Apple's designers significant privileges.
Jonathan Ive, Apple's senior vice president of industrial design, is considered the key figure behind Apple's product soul, second only to Jobs. Under Jobs' strong appreciation, Ive could freely express his design talent, holding a status above any department. Due to certain design details, Ive once fiercely argued with Apple's former hardware engineering director Ron Rubinstein, almost coming to blows. Jobs firmly sided with Ive, resulting in the departure of Rubinstein, known as the "father of iPod."
Before Jobs' departure, Ive had repeatedly expressed intentions to return to the UK; now that the biggest conscience is gone, how long will Ive stay at Apple? Notably, in the promotion of the iPhone 4S, Ive remained unusually low-profile. Behind the revolutionary products launched after Jobs' return to Apple were Ive's genius designs. If this key figure leaves, whether Apple's products can remain "the coolest on the market" is a huge unknown.
Talent Drain Issues Emerge
Besides Ive, Jobs also gathered many excellent management talents. Without the Silicon Valley legend Jobs, will these capable talents who could independently handle responsibilities still stay at the already summit-reaching Apple, rather than seek new challenges? In fact, even before Jobs' passing, his unbeatable fleet had shown signs of talent drain.
After experiencing rapid growth through constant innovation, Apple has entered a mature phase. Without Jobs, can Apple withstand the challenges posed by Facebook and other start-up elites in the ever-changing and entrepreneurial culture of Silicon Valley, resisting the ambition of existing talents to jump ship? The departure of Ron Johnson, Apple's former retail store director, who left to become the CEO of JC Penny, the second-largest department store in the U.S., is a good example.
Other recent departures include: iAd department director Andy Miller, global security department vice president John Theriault, design department senior director Sarah Brody, iPhone and iPod engineering vice president David Tupman, government sales department vice president Ron Police, iCloud service senior manager John Herbold, Macintosh designer Bertrand Serlet, and Siri department director Dag Kittlaus.
Of course, Apple is a company with abundant talent reserves, capable of replacing departing executives through internal promotions and external recruitment, so the short-term impact of talent loss will not cause significant shock. However, as the influence of Jobs' passing becomes increasingly evident, integrating new people into Apple's established culture will require time. The next two to three years will be the most challenging period for Cook to demonstrate his ability to retain talent.
Social Responsibility and Supply Chain
Besides internal designer culture and talent retention issues, Cook must also face increasing public responsibility pressures. At the end of January this year, The New York Times published an in-depth investigation, focusing on the working conditions at Foxconn, Apple's contract manufacturer, drawing attention to Apple's supply chain. Under media scrutiny and protests from the American public, Cook chose a quick response, inviting ABC television's journalists to document the working conditions at Foxconn.
In Apple's supply chain, Foxconn plays a very crucial role, handling the assembly of products like the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. ABC's report believed that Foxconn did not engage in actions harmful to workers, and its working conditions were even significantly better than those of other Chinese factories. However, the Fair Labor Association, a U.S.-based non-profit organization, believed that Foxconn still had "many issues" that needed addressing.
In early February, Foxconn announced a comprehensive wage increase for mainland workers, raising wages by 16%-25%. Currently, the base salary for frontline employees on the mainland far exceeds the legal minimum wage standards set by local governments. The timing of this pay raise clearly indicated pressure from Apple. Behind Apple's dazzling profits, Foxconn's profit margin has gradually declined from 6% in 2006 to 2% last year, earning less than $1 in profit per iPhone. Wage increases put even greater pressure on Foxconn's profits, potentially having a deeper impact on Apple's future supply chain.
However, despite the hidden crises under Apple's prosperous facade, this high-speed advancing aircraft carrier will continue to move forward in the short term. The years of painstaking efforts by Jobs have given Apple incomparable technological and financial strength, making it impossible for this empire to collapse in the short term. But Apple's future largely depends on product innovation, or perhaps the rumored "iTV" might become the new nuclear power for this aircraft carrier.
Postscript:
Driving less than 15 minutes from Jobs' home, you reach the Alta Mesa Cemetery, where Jobs rests among lush green grass in the cemetery. To protect his family's privacy, the exact burial location of Jobs has not been disclosed. The cemetery management has set up a dedicated guestbook for mourners to write their condolences.
As February 24th is Jobs' birthday, many people have come recently to pay their respects. The guestbook is filled with condolences in various languages, with the most frequent content being gratitude. A Japanese girl named Halco wrote: "Thank you for changing my life"; another message said "Thank you for bringing us so many wonderful products, hoping your Apple can truly be great."
Leaving the cemetery near dusk, the warm sunlight bathes the lawn, and flower wreaths are placed on the green grass everywhere. It is so tranquil that you can only hear birds chirping. For Jobs, who worked hard all his life to establish his business and relentlessly pursued perfection, perhaps this is his best resting place.
No matter how great a person, they eventually return to dust; no matter how great a company, there is prosperity and decline. Over decades, Silicon Valley has witnessed the rise and fall of generations of legends and companies; the only constant is the tradition of continuous innovation. Jobs has departed, and Zuckerberg has taken over the flag; for Apple, there will also be later surpassers.
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