Search Market Share Declines, Map Service Prospects Worrying
"2012 will be a year of great performances for Google," revealed Liu Yun, Google's global vice president and general manager of Greater China business, in an interview with the media. However, whether Google, which is constrained by internet map licenses and a continuously declining search market share, can stage a comeback in China remains uncertain.
Is Search Becoming Irrelevant?
Analysys International recently released its "Fourth Quarter 2011 China Search Engine Market Quarterly Monitoring" report. The search market size reached 5.8 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, continuing to grow. In terms of market share, Analysys International described the competition as having a "relatively stable market competition pattern": Baidu, Sogou, Tencent SOSO, and NetEase Youdao steadily grew, while Google continued to "stably" decline.
Specifically, Google, with a 16.7% market share, faces relatively small risks from Sogou (2.7%), SOSO (1.5%), and NetEase (0.4%). However, the gap with Baidu (78.3%) continues to widen. If we go back a year, according to Analysys International's Q4 2010 search monitoring report, Google had a market share of 19.6%, while Baidu had 75.5%. Sogou, SOSO, and Youdao had less than 1% market share. Looking at the data changes over a year, they don't seem significant, but a year ago, other manufacturers held a 2.6% market share, whereas now, other manufacturers only hold 0.4%.
Analysts believe that among the five major search engine manufacturers controlling the market, Hangzhou SEO, the only one showing a declining trend, Google, will directly face the risk of its market share being eroded because there are only so many players left in the market, and the competition is more about internal reshuffling.
In fact, it's well-known that Google's announcement of withdrawing from mainland China in 2010 negatively impacted its search business. Despite still aggressively pursuing advertising business in China, the unpredictability of risks has caused concerns among partners. Almost throughout 2010, Google was deeply embroiled in the incident of losing its East China agents.
"Google's value cannot be measured solely by 'market share' or 'how much money it makes,'" emphasized Liu Yun in interviews with the media, highlighting Google's technology and influence sentiment. Records show that before Google withdrew from mainland China at the end of 2009, its search market share was as high as 35.6%, while Baidu's share was only 58.4%. At that time, the market trend was Google rising and Baidu falling.
Uncertain Prospects for Multiple Businesses
The risks for Google's business in China are not just limited to the loss in the search market; several of its businesses also face challenges in operation. Liu Yun once revealed that Android, Google+, Chrome, and YouTube are Google's four key focus areas this year. However, in the Chinese market, social networking site Google+ and video business YouTube have yet to launch.
Regarding Android, although smartphone manufacturers have been expanding their presence in China, Google has not yet directly benefited significantly. Liu Yun once stated that Google China is discussing the introduction of Android Market (application store). Due to Android's open-source nature and the differences between the Chinese market and other global markets, Google is negotiating related details with relevant departments, without a clear timeline for introduction.
However, Google expressed satisfaction with the performance of its browser Chrome in China, believing it to be growing rapidly. According to the January 2012 domestic search market share monitoring data published by third-party statistical agency CNZZ, Chrome's market share rose to 1.82%, ranking behind Microsoft IE series, 360, and Sogou. Nevertheless, compared to the top three with market shares of 55.14%, 27.32%, and 9.04%, there is still a considerable gap. Notably, in January, Chrome's global market share dropped from 19.11% in December last year to 18.94%, marking the first decline in two years. Whether in the global market or the Chinese market, Chrome faces numerous uncertainties.
As for another traditional advantage business, internet map services, Google's predicament in China remains unresolved. Regulatory authorities announced that the domestic internet map surveying and mapping service qualification review work has been basically completed, but Google has not yet obtained the relevant license after submitting its application, raising doubts about the prospects of Google Maps services. Analyst Yan Xiaojia of Analysys International told reporters that licensing risks have severely affected Google's relationship with its partners. Google no longer holds an advantage in the three major internet map service fields: online maps, API access, and mobile maps.
By Zhang Xuwang / Text
Photographed by Bao Fan
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