The main old fund trial in the early stage, who closed the merit examination. (Note: The original Chinese sentence appears to be somewhat unclear or not standard, which makes an accurate and fluent translation challenging. The provided English translation closely follows the structure of the original but may not convey a clear meaning in English.)

by wenhai4638 on 2012-02-05 16:32:08

Origin: JiaGou Fund Research Center

This year is not the year with the least number of non-fund issues. By the end of November, a total of 107 funds were issued and established this year. Among them, there were 46 medium-term bond funds, 2 capital preservation funds, and the fewest equity-oriented funds, amounting to 59. In November and the first week of December, the market showed a rare upward trend at the end of the year. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 9.59% in November and increased by 7.88% in the first week of December. Since the newly established funds this year have relatively large issuance scales and no historical position burdens, they are more suitable for flexible operations. The performance of these funds can better reflect their active management capabilities. For these newer funds, the six-month ramp-up period is also equivalent to a "trial period." So, which of these newer funds have passed their "trial period"?

1. Deadline Approaching, Rapid Ramp-Up

Fund regulations stipulate that the ramp-up period for funds is usually six months. The new funds issued in late April and early May had their ramp-up deadlines at the end of October and early November. This means that after the increase in November, funds must complete their ramp-up. For example, the Earth Chaos Reform Pioneer (Summary Positive Review), established on May 8, 2008, according to its contract, has a minimum stock investment ratio of 60%. When the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 23.11% in October, the fund increased by 0.05%, indicating that most of the fund's assets were still allocated to stable income bonds and cash, which is consistent with the asset allocation disclosed at the end of the third quarter. However, judging from the net value performance in November and the first week of December, the fund increased by 8.58% and 7.20% respectively, indicating that the ramp-up was not yet completed.

The situation of Jia Real Research Selection (Summary Positive Review) is similar. Established on May 28, 2008, the contract stipulates a minimum stock position of 60%, and the actual ramp-up deadline was early November. The fund gradually completed its ramp-up in November, which can also be seen from the net value performance. At the end of the third quarter, the stock position of the fund was 31.49%, and the net value only fell by 5.14% in October, much less than the market decline, indicating that the fund maintained a relatively low stock position. However, during the rebound in November and December, the fund's net value growth rates were 7.61% and 7.81% respectively, ranking 92nd and 58th among 187 stock funds. For such funds, we cannot rule out the possibility that due to contractual factors, they "happened" to catch the market's upward trend, and their active management capabilities need further observation.

2. Quick Reaction, Rapid Position Increase

Different from the previous type of funds, some funds, although in the ramp-up period, maintained a relatively low stock position in November but significantly increased their positions in December, reflecting their unwillingness to miss out on opportunities. For example, the Penghua Hua Tai Value Growth, established on July 16, 2008, with a ramp-up deadline in mid-December, judging from the net value performance, the probability of a significant position increase is very high. In November, when the market rebounded sharply, the fund's net value only increased by 0.23%, but in the first week of December, the fund's net value decline far exceeded the market decline, reaching 11.89%, making it one of the funds with the largest decline during that period.

The Huadong Strategy Selection (Summary Positive Review) and Nanfang Da Ke Hui (Summary Positive Review) funds also exhibit this characteristic. The Huadong Strategy Selection (Summary Positive Review), established on October 23, 2008, was managed by the star fund manager Wang Yawei, who was relatively cautious at the beginning and did not aggressively ramp up. This is reflected in the net value, as the net value only increased by 1.1% in November, while in the first week of December, the fund's net value increased by 3.36%.

The Nanfang Da Ke Hui (Summary Positive Review), established on October 9, 2008, evolved from the closed-end fund Ke Hui (Summary Positive Review). After the conversion to an open-end fund, it reduced its stock position. According to the third-quarter report, its stock position was only 10.61%, allowing the fund to maintain a relatively low stock asset allocation after the conversion. The net value only increased by 1.00% in November, but the fund saw a significant rise in the first week of December, increasing by 5.95%. This indicates that both funds quickly increased their stock positions after missing the rebound in November.

These funds promptly increased their positions during a continuous upward trend, demonstrating a certain timing ability.

3. Facing Relatively High Position Ramp-Up Due to Market Conditions

Since the beginning of the year, the market volatility has decreased. New funds have fully utilized the advantages of the ramp-up period, maintaining low stock positions, avoiding significant declines in net values, achieving a perfect start. However, after entering November, some funds still habitually maintained relatively low positions, missing out on the market rally in November and the first week of December. Moreover, due to not ramping up at the market's low point, if the market continues to rise, constrained by the ramp-up deadline and agreed-upon position requirements, these funds may be forced to ramp up at relatively higher levels. Some funds established in the upper half of June and early July this year might face such difficulties. For instance, the Xincheng Prosperous Blue Chip (Summary Positive Review), established on June 4, 2008, had its net value decrease by only 2.50% since its establishment until the end of October, while the overall market declined by 48.68% during the same period, clearly achieving excess returns through a low position strategy. During the market rebound in November, the fund still maintained a relatively low position, with the net value increasing by only 0.51%, ranking second-to-last among 180 stock funds. Judging from its performance in the first week of December, the fund's position was still relatively low, with the net value increasing by only 4.90%, ranking 162nd among similar funds. Similar situations can be observed with the Zhaoshang Large Cap Blue Chip (Summary Positive Review), Franklin Bank Deep Value (Summary Positive Review), and SW Paris Cooperative Advantage (Summary Positive Review) funds (see table below).

Funds That May Face Relatively High Position Ramp-Up

|-----------|-------------------|--------------------|-------------|----------------------|-------------|--------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|

| Xincheng Prosperous Blue Chip (Summary Positive Review) | 2008-06-04 | 4.90 | 162 | 0.51 | 186 | -2.50 | -48.68 |

| Zhaoshang Small Cap Blue Chip (Summary Positive Review) | 2008-06-19 | 3.17 | 179 | 1.56 | 181 | -3.60 | -40.04 |

| Franklin Bank Deep Value (Summary Positive Review) | 2008-07-03 | 4.76 | 163 | 2.69 | 173 | -11.49 | -33.49 |

| SW Paris Cooperative Advantage (Summary Positive Review) | 2008-07-04 | 2.21 | 182 | 2.68 | 174 | -2.35 | -34.77 |

Data Source: JiaGou Fund Research Center