Intraday hotspots were scarce, with the ST sector being relatively resilient, while the vast majority of sectors performed rather plainly. By the close, both markets ended with small downward shadows, with most sectors declining. The textile machinery sector led the gains, rising by 0.5%. On the other hand, the material foreign trade, cement, medical devices, brewing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and papermaking sectors led the declines, each falling by more than 1%. The SSE Composite Index closed at 2556.04 points, down 11.3 points, a decrease of 0.44%, with a trading volume of 59.88 billion yuan. The SZSE Component Index closed at 11352.9 points, down 44.62 points, a drop of 0.39%, with a trading volume of 54.53 billion yuan. Combined, the two markets traded 114.41 billion yuan, showing a slight contraction compared to the previous trading day. Thursday's market rebound lacked volume amplification, giving the bulls a minor regret. The lackluster performance of the heavyweight stocks during consolidation also increased the frequency of recent tail-end plunges in the indices. However, there are visible opportunities among individual stocks, though the concentration of sustained hotspots is not good, which is one of the important factors contributing to market instability. Nevertheless, the cluster of ST sectors showcases a weak landscape and has a seesaw counter-effect on the overall market, further proving that the short-term market volatility will be prolonged.
Recently, the tourism sector has been performing remarkably well. Although it hasn't led the market rally, from August 9th onwards, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have slightly risen by 1.6% and 0.72%, respectively. During the same period, the tourism sector surged by 7.24%. With the approach of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season, along with impressive mid-year reports, the tourism sector is expected to perform beyond expectations. Information statistics reveal that in the first half of 2011, the total operating revenue of listed companies in the tourism sector increased by 32%; their aggregate operating profit reached 1.8 billion yuan, up by 28%. As the mid-year report season nears its end, the robust second-quarter performance has instilled optimism regarding third-quarter individual stock performances. Moreover, "In the '12th Five-Year Plan', tourism is designated as a strategic pillar industry; the 'Tourism Law' and 'National Tourism and Leisure Guidelines' are currently under formulation; with consumption upgrades, the tendency for increased tourism consumption is evident, and improvements in transportation have significantly enhanced the convenience of travel." Under the triple drive of policy support, consumption upgrades, and transportation enhancements, the tourism industry has entered a golden growth phase. However, we caution that tourism consumption stocks may peak around mid-September.
On September 1st, the Securities Times reported that according to China Index Academy, the average residential property price in 100 cities in August saw a continued narrowing of month-on-month increases, with more cities experiencing price drops, and nearly six out of ten cities witnessing a reduction in year-on-year increases. Meanwhile, the average residential property price in the top ten cities, including Beijing, saw its first month-on-month decline since last September...
The retreat of inflation in August is now certain. Recently, multiple mainstream institutions, including Shenwan Hongyuan, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Anxin Securities, forecasted that the CPI increase in August might not exceed 6%. Although the retreat of inflation does not necessarily mean a relaxation of policies, these institutions generally agree that from the perspective of impending inflation retreat and high loan interest rates, the necessity for another interest rate hike is minimal.
From a purely technical standpoint, this Friday marks the weekly K-line closure. The lower shadows for the past two weeks’ K-lines were at 2513 and 2507, with the 5-unit weekly K-line at 2584. Thus, today’s closing should ideally not break below 2507. If it does, it would signal a new round of sell-offs digging deeper holes. Conversely, if it doesn’t, the market will continue to consolidate sideways, awaiting the 30-day moving average to descend below 2600.
From a market strategy perspective, consumer stocks can maintain account stability without significant declines. Additionally, some over-sold stocks, like Harbin Air Conditioning (600202), have clearly bottomed out earlier than the broader market. Investors who are uneasy about the market or lack confidence should consider reducing positions and observing.
It is estimated that the market will continue to consolidate around the 2500-point level, with strong support, limited downside potential. Individual stocks will continue to exhibit structural differentiation. Consumer stocks remain favored by institutional investors, thus consistently demonstrating strength.
The 2400-point region constitutes a bottom area, forming an initial head-and-shoulders bottom pattern with the 2610-point level. Looking ahead, the construction of the right shoulder remains, but in the medium term, levels such as 3000, 3500, and even 5000 in the long term will gradually emerge! This is the foundation of a major market trend, and next year’s market is expected to be very promising! Confidence, hope, and skill are necessary to realize profits above 4000 points! Patience and confidence must be maintained, as inevitably some will fall behind—this is akin to a long march. As long as we don’t fall behind, that’s all that matters!
The upward trend at the weekly K-line level persists, and I remain steadfast in my commitment to value investing! I am optimistic about the subsequent rebound performance of resource and consumer stocks!
Starting June 21st, CCTV's Securities Information Channel broadcasts Ye Fei's integrated investment theory at 15:25 every day for 20 consecutive days. Discounts on Guangzhou Tower tickets are available. Your feedback is welcome. Additionally, after May Day, we offer online learning and training sessions focused on stock knowledge and reviewing market conditions, co-organized with CCTV, fully accredited. There's always a bull stock waiting for you! Learn anytime.
Investors can temporarily follow hotspots, setting stop-loss and take-profit levels! Focus mainly on mid-year report performance waves and oversold rebounds! Genuine stock trading isn't about writing stock reviews; practical experience yields true insights. For long-term survival and prosperity, prudent investment is best. Writing stock reviews is merely theoretical speculation. We've never heard of anyone becoming a stock god through writing reviews. Practical trading is more important than commentary! Stay rational during this phase.
Disclaimer: My analysis and focus on stocks serve as materials for future fund manager memoirs and do not constitute buying/selling advice or participation in decision-making. No discrimination against others' bullish/bearish views. It won't affect others' investments. Irrespective of buy/sell points, reckless operations carry the risk of loss, and poor mental states could lead to psychological issues! This year marks the eleventh year of my online stock review diary: http://www.17u.cn/scenery/BookSceneryTicket_27775.html#refid=3103443
Guangdong Tourism Group [165908609] Following the municipal government's work deployment, an "ancient town" trend swept across the industry.