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On the afternoon of August 9, local time in the United States, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged and maintain them at least until mid-2013. Although the statement did not hint at the launch of a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy, it indicated that the risk of economic decline was increasing. In the monetary policy statement, the Fed said it would maintain its current securities reinvestment policy, routinely review the size and composition of securities, and make timely adjustments as appropriate. This means that the Fed is still cautious about whether to implement the third round of quantitative easing. In addition, the stock market rebounded in the turmoil. On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market saw a retaliatory rebound, with all three major indices surging. The Dow Jones Index easily reclaimed the 11,000-point mark. The Asia-Pacific stock markets, including Australia and A-shares, saw a strong rebound. Among them, A-shares staged a stunning reversal, reclaiming the 2500-point level.
However, crude oil did not rebound like the stock market. Due to investors' continued concerns about the global economic outlook and the intensifying market worries, international crude oil prices continued to fall. According to data, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $2.01, closing at $79.30 per barrel, down 2.5%, marking the lowest closing price since last September. During the session, it hit a low of $75.71 per barrel and a high of $83.05 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London fell by $1.17, closing at $102.57 per barrel. Calculated based on the closing price, the difference between Brent crude oil futures and New York light crude oil futures reached $23.27, setting a historical high.
According to a report published today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is part of the U.S. Department of Energy, the forecast for global crude oil demand in 2011 and 2012 remains unchanged. The EIA expects global crude oil consumption to increase by 1.4 million barrels in 2011 and by 1.6 million barrels in 2012.
Considering comprehensive market factors: With the current unclear monetary policy of the Fed, the trend of the foreign exchange market has become intriguing, and the stock market may continue to remain volatile. As market risk sentiment intensifies, crude oil prices may continue to fall.
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