Zheshang Securities: Focus on mid-term layout under repeated fluctuations
If the increase in the reserve requirement ratio does not affect the stability of the market, then when the tightening signal becomes more obvious, it is clear that the support at 3000 points cannot withstand the pressure. The issuance of central bank bills has suddenly decreased, and the CBRC has confirmed that the minimum adequacy ratio for state-owned commercial banks has been raised to 11.5%. In such circumstances, the market is impacted by liquidity contraction. After the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3000 points, it continued to probe lower. Although the decline on Tuesday was only 26 points, the continuous decline over three trading days quickly expanded the fall of individual stocks, showing signs of weakening market confidence. The decline in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) was even more significant. The GEM index broke through its previous low point, setting a recent new low at 941 points. The Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) Board Index (6954.690, 30.77, 0.44%) could not escape either, continuing the downward trend.
Zhongyuan Securities: Weak pattern difficult to break
Yesterday, the A-share market continued to retreat under the impact of multiple negative news and rumors. The rumor that the CBRC may raise the capital adequacy ratio target for the five major banks triggered concerns about rising credit risks and further tightening of regulation. At the same time, this week marks the final deadline for listed companies to release their annual reports and first-quarter reports, with numerous poor-performing companies' reports being released, raising investors' concerns about a significant drop in the profit growth rate of listed companies. As the pressure of upward movement gradually becomes apparent, varieties with large gains in the previous period have successively seen cashing out and exiting, exacerbating investors' wait-and-see sentiment.
Rixin Securities: Rebound declared over, waiting better than false hope
The market experienced consecutive adjustments due to the failure of policy easing expectations and the strengthening of economic downturn expectations. Cyclical stocks that were active earlier and small-cap and GEM stocks with drastically changed first-quarter report performances have fallen in turn. Thus, the rebound driven by the end of policy relaxation or tightening, and the re-allocation of existing funds caused by the housing purchase ban, may face the dilemma of false hope. Also, a batch of small-cap and GEM companies' significantly worsened first-quarter performances have put high-growth supporting high valuation small-cap and GEM stocks into a situation of false hope. Under multiple pressures, the rebound finally came to an end. Instead of false hope, it's better to patiently wait.
Nanjing Securities: Stock index may enter a stalemate stage
In the past two days, despite the basically stable news surface, the stock index's sell-off has not stopped. Driven by the continued adjustment of cyclical stocks and the breakdown of small and medium-cap stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index ultimately failed to stabilize above 3000 points, directly breaking through the strong 30-day moving average support in this rally, once again showcasing the weak pattern of the stock index. Behind the market's sharp correction, on one hand, there is the continuous tightening of macro policies affecting the profit growth rate of listed companies, and on the other hand, there is concern about the supply-demand balance in the stock market, especially in the small-cap board and GEM, due to the accelerated issuance of new shares.
Yintai Securities: Adjustment triggered by earnings landmines may be nearing the end
Two consecutive trading days of sharp declines do not necessarily indicate the end of the rebound starting from 2661 points. The recent slow rise and rapid fall of the market mainly stems from the approach of the May Day holiday and the concentrated disclosure of performance, leading to increased worries about future uncertainties. We believe that the short-term sharp decline may indicate that the adjustment has reached its position. After sufficient adjustment in the first half of this week, the probability of the market returning above 3000 points this week remains relatively high.
Shenwan Hongyuan: Without new fund inflows, rotational rally can only fizzle out
After several ups and downs, the Shanghai market finally reclaimed the 3000-point level in early April. In the eyes of many investors, this is a sign that the market has further confirmed a strong rally. As a result, investors generally hold optimistic views on the future market and expect further increases in the index. Especially when the index was approaching 3000 points, the banking sector played a significant role in driving the market. Currently, banks still have significant advantages in terms of valuation. Therefore, as long as the banking sector can make further progress, the index will be able to take another good step forward, and the market will become active again.
Huaron Securities: Support expected near the half-year line
Since the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high of 3067 points on April 18th, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen nearly 10% in six trading days. Given that there has been no significant change in the macroeconomic situation, the market is beginning to doubt whether the half-year line can form effective support. However, we believe that the impact of this emotional fluctuation on the market may be limited, and the market will eventually return to the fundamentals of the economy, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to find support near the half-year line.