Blog level: Loading... Blog points: Loading... Blog visits: Loading... Announcement Author biography: Time Elder, Ph.D. in Science, Associate Professor, Securities Analyst, Business Management Expert, with hobbies in Zhouyi, Eight Trigrams, Naming, Predictive Studies, Buddhism, Religion, Astronomy, Geography, History, Current Affairs, etc. Originally from Jilin Province, currently employed at a renowned university's finance college in the capital. In 1988, obtained a doctorate degree from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and subsequently held senior positions in technology development and economic research in universities, state-owned enterprises, foreign enterprises, private enterprises, abroad, and listed companies. Worked at Jilin University, Sinopec, Hokkaido University in Japan, ALAS Group in Indonesia, Delong Group, Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Factory. In September 2006, transferred to macroeconomic research and took up the current position. 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Fund return rankings loading… Visitors loading… Friends loading… Messages loading… Global stock markets loading… In the last two months of 2009, the stock market experienced unexpected fluctuations again. This fluctuation was closely related to the international economic situation. 1. B-shares fluctuated first. B-share fluctuations came earlier; on November 13th, both city B-shares were significantly increased, reportedly due to expectations of RMB appreciation; after that, on November 24th, there was a sharp drop, reportedly due to large-scale foreign capital outflows at year-end. 2. A-shares fluctuated later. The fluctuations in A-shares began this Tuesday. Rumors of the CBRC requiring banks to increase their capital adequacy ratio and Bank of China needing a large billion-yuan financing caused the hundred-point long decline on Tuesday. After a slight rebound on Wednesday, another hundred-point long decline occurred on Thursday, breaking through the 30-day moving average line. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped to its lowest point at 3080 points, with the 60-day moving average (3020 points) just around the corner. 3. Main reasons for the fluctuations. Now, the main reasons for the fluctuations in A-shares and B-shares have come to light, originally due to Saudi Arabia, one of the "Oil Empires," causing trouble. The market once again played the role of the year-end killer. Following the "hundred-point long decline" crash on Tuesday, another "hundred-point dive" occurred on Thursday. On Tuesday, the total trading volume in both cities was 4750 billion yuan; on Thursday, it was 3300 billion yuan. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to its lowest point at 3160 points, with the 30-day moving average line just within reach (3143 points), see Figure 1. Figure 1, the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index over the past two months (from September 28th - purple line: 30-day line). At the end of the year, discussions are rampant. With developed media, research, debates, and constant noise, this is a major feature of China's stock market. Foreign stock markets consist of stock markets and investors, whereas China's stock market has four elements: stock markets, retail investors, major players, and experts. Major players include various public funds, private funds, speculative capital, and stock fraudsters. Stock fraudsters are those who constantly call or send text messages to recommend stocks and develop members, including people from Shenzhen (0755), Chongqing (023), and Shanghai (021). Experts include two major portals and three schools: air force, bulls, and guerrillas. Whenever the stock market surges, it is the most rampant time for stock fraudsters; whenever the stock market adjusts, it is the most active time for experts. The current stock market has entered the final stage of the year. After a big rise on Wednesday, recapturing half of the previous day’s losses, see Figures 1-3. As 2009 is coming to an end, it is time to layout strategies for the cross-year market trends. Layout strategies include thematic stocks, chasing the large cap easily attacked without any prior warning. On Tuesday, the SSE Composite Index plunged by -3.45%, creating the largest decline since September this year. The last big fall was on August 31st this year when the SSE Composite Index fell by -6.74% with a trading volume of 4750 billion yuan. Just after the explosive growth on November 13th, the B-shares in both markets were back to their original form, with the Shanghai B-share index falling by -7.34% and the Shenzhen B-share falling by -4.75%, far greater declines than the A-shares. The reasons for the falls and crashes were investigated at the time. By midday, the 27 stocks in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) (300010 LisiChen suspended) had a trading volume of 400 million yuan, with the GEM index closing at 907 points at noon, showing a 1.47% increase, indicating high volatility. Specific data can be seen in Table 1. The trading volume has been converted to 800 million yuan for the whole day, with an average share price of 53.37 yuan per share. Data for the GEM over the past three weeks can be found in Table 1. On Friday, the opening surge saw the SSE Composite Index oscillating above 3300 points. At 10:04 AM, it reached 3326 points but lacked momentum for further attacks. The high point of 3332 points on Friday was hard to break. The trading volume of 202.8 billion yuan on Friday was also difficult to surpass. Figure 1 shows the two-day line of the SSE Composite Index at 10:09 AM. Disclaimer: This "five-day line" is not the five-day moving average line. Looking at Figure 1, this is the five-day line of a GEM stock. Figure 1: The five-day line of XinNing Logistics in the GEM (Vertical axis: Share Price; Horizontal axis: Date). The horizontal axis shows eight grids, with every two grids representing one trading day. This represents the trading days from last Monday to Thursday for the GEM stock XinNing Logistics. It can be observed that: The so-called "Chinese NASDAQ" GEM started trading on October 30th and has been running for three weeks now. Recently, the management mentioned that the GEM index might be introduced next month. Of course, this is only a possibility. Logically speaking, once a sector appears, regardless of the number of stocks, there should be an index to guide investor operations! However, this GEM has been operating "confusedly" for three weeks without any reference benchmark, and it seems that it will continue to be "confused" for a few more weeks! Time Elder mentioned in yesterday's blog post: "Technically, it is very simple to formulate an index for a sector." However, the GEM index has not yet been introduced even after three weeks of "opening". This matter is very suspicious. One, the reason why the GEM index has not been launched after careful analysis reveals a serious issue: The delay in launching the GEM index is a significant strategy or even a conspiracy. The purpose of this conspiracy is very clear: To prevent too many retail investors from getting involved in this sector. The management's original intention is that the GEM index may be introduced next month, but it is only a possibility. Technically, it is very simple to formulate an index for a sector, but the GEM index has not yet been introduced even after three weeks of "opening". This is a strategy or even a conspiracy, aimed at preventing too many retail investors from getting involved in this sector. Time Elder promptly discovered this issue and started participating after one week of "opening", which indeed proved to be highly profitable. To timely guide his own operations, Time Elder designed the GEM index early on. One, the GEM index starts with the weighted average index of the opening day, October 30th, set at 1000 points. Two, observe the trends of the 28 GEM stocks. See some charts. The daily trend of the SSE Composite Index since September this year. Figure 1: Trend of the SSE Composite Index (daily high-position cross star with volume). The daily line in Figure 1 indicates an adjustment trend. The weekly line trend of the SSE Composite Index is shown in Figure 2. Retail investment, stock consultation, market research. Market trends•Individual stock research. General manager of a famous securities company in Beijing. Homepage of Sina Portal Website Blog. Renowned financial commentator. Renowned economist and commentator, Ph.D., Chartered Financial Analyst. Renowned economic commentator, senior securities expert, stock commentator. Renowned financial analyst, seasoned stock investor. Seasoned stock investor, renowned stock commentator. Seasoned stock commentator, seasoned stock investor. Renowned economic and financial blogger. Forex trends loading... Comments loading...缘分天空 Last year Lehman Brothers, this year Dubai World. Year-end three-pronged approach: theme-based rally and ambush. Hundred-point long black candle highlights institutional flaws. Judging stock trends from the 5-day line. Pre-disclosed GEM index. GEM index currently at 869 points. Last year Lehman Brothers, this year Dubai World. Hundred-point long black candle highlights institutional flaws. Judging stock trends from the 5-day line. More exciting content in "Home for Retail Investors". More exciting content in "Home for Retail Investors". "Home for Retail Investors" Blog Circle. Sina BLOG feedback message board About Sina SINA English