I say the Rockets will make it this year, for three reasons:
First, without McGrady, everyone knows that getting rid of him also gets rid of the bad luck in the first round. So this year, they've made it to the second round, and who knows, they might even make it to the finals. Plus, Uncle Mu's injury has inspired the whole team.
Second, the bench lineup. Everyone knows that the Rockets have the strongest bench in the league. Whenever there's a chance for bench-on-bench play, the Rockets definitely have the upper hand.
Third, in order to help America out of the financial crisis, attract the attention of the largest population in the world, and enhance domestic brand awareness, the US would choose to secretly push the Rockets into the finals. (However, it's unfortunate that there's no Yao Ming now, sigh. It seems like the third point won't work, and it ended up being pro-Kobe instead. But we still see that the Rockets can beat the Lakers even without Yao.)
This is my brief analysis, please correct me if I'm wrong. Anyway, the Rockets are doing great this year, and Yao Ming is great too, because leading the Rockets to the second round of the playoffs is a leap of an era.