First, how long will the Chinese government's economic stimulus policies last? Second, how strong is the Chinese government's desire to resist a bubble burst? The longer the stimulus policy lasts and the stronger the resistance to the burst, the more likely it is for China's economic depression to turn into a major one.
If his prediction proves correct, as some parts have already shown, then bank failures, which have never occurred in China since 1949, will appear next year. And the high housing prices that trouble countless young Chinese will also plummet next year, just like this year's stock market.
Of course, bad things don't necessarily lead to bad results. The Great Depression starting in 1929 severely hit Europe, making the United States the world's top power. And this crisis will inevitably hurt the United States, further enhancing China's status.
What I'm interested in is, what consequences would fundamental social crises bring to an authoritarian country? One scenario is that in 1917, Russia was dragged down by World War I with its economy bankrupt, so the masses stormed the Winter Palace and the Tsar was executed. Another scenario is that in 1933, Germany was affected by the Great Depression with an unemployment rate of 33%, so the masses yearned for a tougher and more extreme leader, and Hitler became Chancellor.