Analysts believe that, apart from the drag of surrounding markets, A shares also have intrinsic impetus for falling. Hangzhou New Hope analysis report pointed out that A shares themselves have pressure to adjust. First, despite the fact that this rebound round is a small-scale one, sector rotation has been quite successful, and some individual stocks have had 50% increases or even doubled in value; under bad news, selling pressure is unavoidable. Secondly, selling pressure by large non-tradable shareholders this month has also caused negative psychological effects.
Xinda Securities' Zheng Xingcheng expressed that the development of the future market situation still faces no small amount of resistance. First, CPI and PPI data hitting new lows has made many institutions worried about the worsening prospects for economic growth. Secondly, the World Bank again lowering its global economic growth forecast will certainly affect domestic enterprises' exports. Thirdly, the effect of good news is nearing an end. From the government's measures to boost the economy, since the 4 trillion yuan investment will last until 2010, it will take a certain amount of time for static government investments to transform into pulling up the economy. Third, IPO rumors are highly damaging. The market suddenly rumored yesterday that the CSRC is reviewing China CSR Corporation's A share IPO application, shaking the market's confidence to buy more.
A private equity person said that actually, from the 60 minute chart, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a diverging trend last week. But every time the market should make a technical adjustment, some weighted stocks again gain strength at the closing bell, making many stocks that should adjust rise with the wind; it can be said that this adjustment has already been postponed for quite a long time. If using 2100 points before as a limit, the estimated short-term adjustment period is around 10 days, with an estimated fall of around 10%. In terms of operations, next week's market may still have fluctuations, but investors absolutely must not overstay their welcome, and should mainly reduce positions when prices are high.