Reporter: Under the backdrop of a large green trend in overseas markets, the operational pressure on A-shares is increasing. Not long after the opening on Friday, there was a sharp decline. Unexpectedly, the Asia-Pacific stock market suddenly gained momentum at noon. In this subtle market environment, will the A-shares, which have been rising consecutively, continue their rebound next week?
Chen Xiaoyang: During the switch between old and new hotspots in the market over the weekend, the market experienced intense fluctuations and adjustments. Subsequently, due to rumors about interest rate cuts over the weekend and the introduction of a stabilization fund, the heavyweight stocks led by financials and real estate promptly played a stabilizing role. This quickly reversed the situation, refusing further adjustment of the index, indicating that the short-term downward adjustment space is relatively limited. Moreover, with a new wave of interest rate cuts in the external environment and rising expectations for an interest rate cut over the weekend, it can be seen that the market sentiment next week will temporarily continue to revolve around a strong fluctuation pattern near the 2000-point mark.
Reporter: Around the 2000-point level, there has been fierce contention between bulls and bears. If this round of rebound cannot continue, will the index break below the previous low?
Chen Xiaoyang: It's possible. Although the recent large-scale expansion of investment is not simply about stimulating the economy but will inevitably change the economic structure and adjust China's role in the global economy in the near future, these investments and their amplification effects will ultimately take a long time to reflect in the financial statements of listed companies, perhaps one to two years. That is to say, the current market reaction is merely psychological expectation. After the excitement fades, the market will return to the reality of unfavorable economic data. This indicates that the foundation for initiating the market rally is not solid, meaning that the market in the future will seek a new equilibrium point for adjustment.
Reporter: The strong rebound driven by the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan did not slow down the pace of share reductions by major shareholders, instead giving them an opportunity to reduce holdings. Thus, how should we view the attitude of major shareholders towards the future market and their impact on the market?
Chen Xiaoyang: The issue of major shareholders reducing holdings should be the Achilles' heel of the recent market rebound. The most striking example is on November 21st when more than 1.2 billion restricted shares of Haitong Securities matured, and during trading, more than 400 million shares were sealed at the bottom limit. This shows that the problem of major shareholders reducing holdings has always been the market's weak point. With the strong rebound in the recent market, the impulse for major shareholders to reduce holdings has increased several times, and many listed companies have joined the selling ranks. Especially as year-end approaches, institutions have strong requirements for year-end capital repatriation, which will clearly suppress the rebound space of the index.
Reporter: In the adjustment process over the past few days, sectors benefiting from the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan have adjusted slightly. Do you think they have the potential for continued speculation? Should investors enter during the adjustment?
Chen Xiaoyang: In this turning-point rebound, from cement and railway equipment to construction machinery and 3G, etc., the market has staged a relay of speculative activities like passing the baton. The question arises: after this round of sector rotations based on the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan, what sector will initiate the next round of rallies? Unaware retail investors may not react in time and end up holding the next baton. Clearly, after the speculative spree by short-term funds, investors should not blindly buy on dips but rather remain vigilant against a return to a weak market or seek new policy-affected investment hotspots.
Due to time constraints, the blog post can only use the interview transcript from the Beijing Youth Daily. The return to strength at the close on Friday is significant, implying that the market will continue to exhibit a strong fluctuation pattern around the 2000-point level in the coming period. Investors should closely monitor changes in the news over the weekend, pay attention to the switching between old and new hotspots, and observe changes in trading volume.
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Next week, the market will still strongly fluctuate around the 2000-point level.
dxd Published 4 hours 8 minutes ago
Source: chen-xiaoyang.blog.sohu.com Tags: Fluctuation