This week, the market closed with a 170-point up-and-down fluctuation. In the weekly K-line chart, it showed a small negative Doji star, indicating fierce contention between the bulls and bears. In last week's analysis report, I clearly pointed out: since the market has already attacked to the 10-week moving average line, satisfying the first attack target, there would be an adjustment in principle to confirm the support of the 5-week moving average line. As a result, on Monday, the market continued to rise slightly, on Tuesday it washed with a large yin line, on Wednesday it was supported again at the 12-day EXPMA line, on Thursday it rebounded strongly with a large yang line, on Thursday it met resistance at the 60-day moving average line and showed a clear adjustment trend. On Friday, under the influence of vague positive news after breaking through the 12-day EXPMA line, the market made a strong rebound.
In last week's analysis report, I have already analyzed the use method of the EXPMA indicator, so I will not introduce it here. Please pay close attention to the 12-day EXPMA indicator, which must not be broken. Once it is broken, perhaps even the 5-week moving average line may not provide support. From a technical perspective, if it breaks during trading, it will receive support from the 5-week line as long as the closing price does not break. Any day that breaks through the 5-day moving average line has the potential to continue attacking new highs, and the strong resistance is the 5-month moving average line.
Based on this judgment, it can be concluded that the market will inevitably make a directional choice at the beginning of next week. Please closely monitor the 4 trillion yuan concept stocks. Only when this sector takes turns to start will the current market sentiment be maintained. Whether the index stocks Ping An Bank and CITIC Securities can strengthen will affect the market index. Without the pull of the index, it is difficult for the market to strengthen. The real estate sector and the steel sector can be given attention at lower levels, and are expected to become the next hot sectors. I continue to recommend long-term attention to small and medium-sized board stocks because their expansion intention is very strong. By the end of the year, they are expected to launch high-ratio dividends, thereby achieving a doubling trend; due to the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus, whether companies can significantly benefit still needs to be observed. I am relatively optimistic about the pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors, which are not affected by macro-control and can achieve stable returns. Friends who like to invest, the liquor sector should be the time to enter at lower levels.
How to operate next week?
The supports for Shanghai are 1900 and 1850 points, and the resistances are 2080 points and 2280 points. Please note that next Thursday is an important time window. The market can set a new high for this round on any day it breaks through the 5-day moving average line. Breaking below 1850 points will create a new low. When operating, never chase high prices, and always buy stocks adjusted to the 5-day moving average line. If it breaks down, there will also be an opportunity to exit during the counterattack, at worst you will only lose one handling fee.