Technical aspect: short-term trend is bullish. Resistance levels for the March 2012 contract are at 96.00, 98.50, and 102.00-105.00 cents. Support levels are at 94.00, 92.00, with key support at 90.00 cents. If it closes below the critical support level, the short-term outlook will not be optimistic.
March 2012 Contract: Open at 94.10, previous settlement at 95.00, today's open at 95.52, today's low at 94.48, lowest in 27,688 contracts, annual high on 9/14/2011.
On January 6, Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Index rose by 60 points to close at 20,996. Total trading volume decreased to 63,000 lots, and total open interest slightly increased by 2,252 lots to 276,000 lots. The main contract for May 2012 rose by 50 points to close at 20,870, with trading volume reduced to 45,000 lots and open interest increased by 1,396 lots to 186,000 lots.
As of January 5, the total certified inventory in New York was 40,556 bales, with no pending certification inventory.
On January 6, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 0.3% to close at $101.56 per barrel. February gold futures fell by 0.2% to close at $1,616.80 per ounce.
On January 6, Zhengzhou TA1205 closed at 8,640 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne from the previous day's close, with a gain of 0.6%. Open interest increased by 21,578 lots to 352,164 lots. The mid-fiber PTA price index rose by 20 yuan to 8,770 yuan/tonne.
On January 6, the national weighted average price of the China Cotton Price Index CC Index 328 closed at 19,190 yuan/tonne, up 1 yuan. CC Index 527 closed at 16,598 yuan/tonne, up 12 yuan, and CC Index 229 closed at 20,436 yuan/tonne, up 7 yuan.
On Friday (January 6), the ICE cotton futures opened higher and continued to rise. The March contract opened at 95.00 cents, reaching an intraday high of 95.92 cents and a low of 94.40 cents, eventually closing at 95.86 cents, up 1.12 cents from the previous session. Trading volume decreased to 9,293 lots, and open interest stood at 84,667 lots. The May contract closed at 95.52 cents, up 1.04 cents; the July contract closed at 95.47 cents, up 0.93 cents.
The USDA announced the Global Adjustment Price (AWP) for January 6 - January 12 as 77.98 cents.
Market analysts pointed out that since December 14, the cotton market has cumulatively risen by 1,200 points, and since 2012, it has cumulatively risen by 450 points. The market hit its highest level since November 18 on Wednesday this week. Thursday's 100-point correction after the decline in commodities is normal. Currently, the cotton market remains volatile at high levels, with strong upward momentum and potential for a breakout at any time. Continued purchases by China to replenish inventories and drought in the U.S. cotton-growing regions provide some support for the upward movement of cotton prices.
On January 6, the Cotlook A Index fell by 70 points to close at 99.65 cents/pound.
On January 5, the U.S. spot cotton market slm 1-1/16" cotton (color grade 41, leaf grade 4, fiber length 34) averaged 90.06 cents/pound, with an annual high of 110.14 cents on September 14, 2011, and an annual low of 81.94 cents on December 14, 2011. The 1 3/32" cotton (color grade 31, leaf grade 3, fiber length 35) averaged 94.37 cents/pound.
USDA reported net sales of Pima cotton at 6,200 bales, including sales to China (3,700 bales). Net sales for delivery in 2012/13 to China were 8,800 bales. Pima cotton exports reached 27,600 bales (a new high for the marketing year), up 24% from last week and 33% from the four-week average, including exports to China (6,800 bales).
The USDA released its latest weekly cotton export sales report based on reports submitted by exporters from December 23-29, 2011. During the reporting week, net sales of upland cotton for the 2011/12 sales year decreased by 9,500 standard export bales. Net sales for delivery in 2012/13 to China were 3,100 bales. Upland cotton exports totaled 149,200 bales, down 22% from last week's report and 24% from the four-week average, including exports to China (54,300 bales).
On January 6, the US spot market traded 9,627 bales of upland cotton, with a total of 425,639 bales traded for the year. Last year's same-day trading volume was 382,162 bales.
On January 6, the ICE American Cotton Futures closing situation showed mixed results across different contracts.
On January 6, the China Import Cotton Price Index (FC Index M) was 104.09 cents, down 0.70 cents. Converted to sliding scale tax price, it was 17,245 yuan, with a price difference of -1,945 yuan/tonne compared to domestic cotton.
On January 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 55.78 points to close at 12,359.92, down 0.45%; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 4.36 points to close at 2,674.22, up 0.16%; the S&P 500 Index fell by 3.25 points to close at 1,277.81, down 0.25%.
On Friday, the U.S. stock market closed mixed, with gains for the week. The U.S. December non-farm employment data further confirmed the continuous improvement in labor conditions, but the decline in the euro exchange rate and the underlying European debt crisis issue continue to cause concern in the market. According to economic data, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that non-farm employment increased from 120,000 in November to 200,000 in December; the unemployment rate dropped from 8.6% in November to 8.5%, the lowest in nearly three years. The December employment report is the most powerful statement yet showing the increase in the vitality of the U.S. economy.
Effective date: January 6 - January 12.