Operation strategy in next week's spring rally (chart) The spring rally is a bottom region rebound driven by liquidity. Four factors have improved market liquidity: credit growth, suspension of central bank bill issuance, net increase in industrial capital, and the entry of "visible hand" into the market after consecutive new stock breakouts. From the perspective of the whole year, this year's market environment will be better than last year.
The two favorable news on Friday are as follows: First, the total accumulated balance of the five social insurance funds is 2.87 trillion yuan, which is not a small amount, while the total market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is only more than 20 trillion yuan. The future entry of social security funds into the market will inevitably lead to a sharp rise in the stock market; Second, today, the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions was officially reduced, and the statutory deposit reserve requirement ratios for large and small deposit-taking financial institutions were reduced to 20.5% and 18.5%, respectively. Some institutions estimate that this reduction will release about 400 billion yuan of liquidity, and most views believe that it will stimulate banks' loan disbursement. Releasing liquidity is beneficial to the A-share market.
The stock market is like a casino. Without a set of profit-making methods and self-discipline rules, it is difficult to win against cunning major players relying solely on individual efforts. Xianhe engages in stock market games, operates trends, and uses real combat for training and learning. The practical training of the Wolf Team all comes from the skills of stock market games, and these are all skills exchanged with real money. As for some websites and financial management institutions that publish investment advice, recommend individual stocks or engage in financial management under the name of Xianhe or Xianhe Lunshi, they are all counterfeit and have nothing to do with me. Please carefully identify them!
Investors who feel good about short-term operations can appropriately attack the price difference opportunities brought by the repeated rotation of low-valued weighted stocks. Dongfang Guoxin broke through the整理platform at 30.6 on February 22, followed by two consecutive limit-ups.
In the study of the statistical data of each market rebound cycle, we continuously discover two comparative data. First, the rebound space of the bottom cycle is generally around 12%. Short-term will begin to constantly vibrate and trouble to increase platform turnover, providing space and capital support for further mid-term rise. The second characteristic is that the炒作route is basically the same, that is, overbought rebound - cyclical strength - blue-chip stock catch-up - growth stock acceleration in four processes. The current market is just at the awkward position of 12%, but the hot spots of speculation are in the third stage - blue-chip stock catch-up. Thus, the market will still maintain a strong state. The previous judgment of the decline was due to great technical pressure and capital platform retreat, but all of these have been resolved by favorable news. The current strong vibration also provides a good basic environment for blue-chip stock catch-up.
The market once again verified the unique insight of QFII in the A-share market. The fund's adjustment of positions in the fourth quarter of 2011 was not very successful. Although the adjustment effect of securities companies compared with funds could be considered half a catty and eight taels, the trend of heavily positioned individual stocks was relatively balanced. Insurance adjustment effect: not as good as the top, but better than the bottom, reflecting the always steady operation style of insurance funds. Due to catching the early-year rebound opportunity of cyclical individual stocks, the "remain unchanged to deal with all changes" operation strategy of social security funds has been successful.
Jiacreate Vision, after the main force control on February 13, fluctuated back and forth. On February 16, it broke through the consolidation platform at 13.22, then used the rubbing line to wash out, and subsequently pulled two consecutive limit-ups.
Warm reminder: Recently, there have been people impersonating myself (Xianhe, Xianhe Lunshi) to add netizens and talk about cooperation, and plagiarize my blog. I advise everyone to be cautious and not to be deceived!
Huayi Jiachen experienced a volume-contracted vibration. On Tuesday, it broke through the consolidation platform at 13.42 with a high trading volume, and quickly rose.
The support of the CSRC for blue-chip stocks has successfully fermented in this week's market. Real estate, machinery, cement, commerce and other blue-chip stocks have all exerted force, and replaced the theme stocks to become the backbone force driving the market to successfully break through the 2400-point mark.
Once the market continues to show increased trading volume and huge trading volume in the near future, avoiding the risk of consolidation should still be the first consideration in operations. Especially when the trading volume in the Shanghai market exceeds 150 billion yuan, it should be a warning trading volume standard. Or when the trading volume stagnates at a high position, or when the price rises but the trading volume falls.
From the perspective of sector segmentation. Only real estate and banks rising while others remain still obviously does not conform to the "blue-chip stock market", so the banking sector should still be watched. Just focus on these two main force sectors. For those who don't want to use their brains, the simplest method can be adopted. More precisely, pay attention to the sharp war chariot mentioned by Xianhe - banks as the general, real estate and engineering machinery as the assistants, non-ferrous metals and coal as side support.
Until now, the SSE index has been stable above the six-month line for three consecutive trading days. According to the time principle, the current breakout can be confirmed as an effective breakout, and the six-month line has therefore turned into a short-term strong support.
Recently, Xianhe's blog posts have been arbitrarily reprinted or misused by some websites. I hereby declare: All websites are allowed to reprint and use Xianhe's articles, but must sign: Xianhe Lunshi, full text published, otherwise it is an infringement, and once discovered, I will pursue their legal responsibilities.
This method and skill is called the Hidden Dragon Rising to Heaven Method (in the practical training of the Wolf Team, different market conditions require different operations, specific methods and skills will not be elaborated here).
Even though the rebound since 2132 points has broken through the 200-point rebound curse and successively captured multiple important barriers. In a big rebound environment, maintaining the short-term market strength, blue-chip stocks are not necessary conditions.
Truth behind the real estate sector's surge. Although the market has rebounded 14% from 2132, from an individual stock perspective, up to Thursday, there were 4 stocks with gains exceeding 100%, 12 with gains of 80%, 27 with gains of 70%, 41 with gains of 60%, 105 with gains of 50%, 295 with gains of 40%, 860 with gains of 30%, and 1824 with gains of 20%.
Two major heavyweight favorable news boost A-shares skyrocketing
All Xianhe's blog posts are personal notes and do not constitute any operational basis. Operations based on this bear risks on their own. As for the "black advertisements" in the comments and replies below the article, they are irrelevant to me. Xianhe advises all stock friends to be cautious and not to be deceived.
Looking forward to the future market, there is no need to worry about the market experiencing a large-scale retracement before the National People's Congress. After breaking through 2380 points, it has already formed a strong support below, and the 20-day moving average has basically become the strong support neckline of the stock index.
In the past two months' rebound market, blue-chip stocks were not completely left out.
Therefore, doing stocks cannot only stay at the technical level. In the atmosphere of China's stock market with strong policy color, sometimes you have to appropriately talk about politics.
Expectations for the policy bottom of the real estate industry are gradually strengthening as local real estate regulation policies are adjusted.
Even if blue-chip stocks collectively cease activity, as long as short-term hotspots can achieve effective rotation, it is believed that the possibility of the 2400-point barrier falling soon is not great.
We can refer to our own stock selection ideas from the layout of the five major institutions in the fourth quarter of 2011: Funds turn to attack high-quality blue-chip stocks. Brokers continue to stay in large blue-chips and restructuring stocks. QFII favors high transfer topics. Insurance continues to layout cyclical individual stocks. Social security bottoms out low valuation cyclical stocks.
In the near term, real estate, finance, and low-priced blue-chip stocks can be watched, mainly holding shares for appreciation, and frequent stock switching is not advisable.
After back-and-forth vibration washing, the main force quickly exchanges chips, and the main force funds and retail funds switch positions, resulting in a short-term volume-expanding rebound.
The market's bullish thinking dominates, especially the significant strengthening of the real estate sector will greatly boost market confidence. In the short term, it is expected that the stock index will continue to vibrate upward, and investors can actively grasp the market's structural opportunities.
Currently, the market's speculation may gradually enter the third stage - the blue-chip stock catch-up stage.
Dewell Surveillance broke below the work line on February 17. After a quick exchange of chips, it suddenly started on February 20, with continuous volume expansion, resulting in three limit-ups.
Solemn declaration: The normal vibration range of the market is 2380-2548. Supports at 2412 and 2400, pressures at 2459, 2497, and 2536. In the article "Xianhe Weekly Review: Pressure Level After Six Consecutive Gains," Xianhe mentioned: If next week breaks through the resistance levels of 2450-2459, it will likely impact the pressure levels of 2491-2500. The key is to lock in profits timely and accurately in the madness.
Individual stocks with good growth, reasonable valuation, high transfer expectations, and substantive reorganization topics have further exploration value.
Sometimes investing in stocks is very simple - listen to the party's words, it's necessary. From Tuesday's 7.45 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan to Friday's 12 billion yuan, the continuous three days of trading volume over one billion yuan, so much capital did not fall from the sky. This is macro.
Personal stock commentaries by Xianhe:
1. From the perspective of trading volume. If it is to be called a "blue-chip stock market", the current trading volume is far from enough. Xianhe believes that in the future, there will be a trading volume of nearly 15 billion yuan.
At the beginning of the year, Premier Wen said "boosting stock market confidence", to Chairman Guo Shuqing's call for pension funds to enter the market, rare investment opportunities for blue-chip stocks, and then the CSRC encouraging major shareholders to increase holdings, policies are like a leading brother calling out. No wonder many investors jokingly say that the whole world wants to come and copy the bottom of the A-share market.
Key to operation is to watch the trading volume.
Xianhe believes that sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing, cement, commercial retail, automobile manufacturing, coal, engineering construction, real estate, electrical equipment, electronic components, home appliances, etc., are worth paying attention to.
"Creating bulls" requires blue-chip stocks to "guard the pass" and focus on hot spots.
Leeman Optoelectronics suddenly washed back on February 15, supported by Xianhe's work line, broke through the consolidation platform at 17.43 on February 21, and broke through the 20-day moving average.
A strong pattern shows, revealing a major signal: That is, the stock index has entered a perfect uptrend, and intra-day pullbacks are the best times to buy and add positions.
Disclaimer: The above are personal opinions. Operations based on this bear risks on their own!
Future direction? Can be comprehensively analyzed from three angles.
Operational recommendations:
Before the opening on Friday, Xianhe reminded: Next, whether the old hot spots change or new hot spots emerge, they will continue to activate the market's trading enthusiasm. Therefore, at this point, investors do not need to be overly cautious.
Friday is the last trading day of this week. If it can create a new rebound high again, according to the experience summary that 90% of the Friday high will be broken through in the next week, the market sentiment next week can still be moderately optimistic.
The real estate sector surged before noon, pulling the index directly upwards, igniting bullish enthusiasm.
Panhai Construction, Yinfu Development, Zhonghua Enterprise, Rongan Real Estate, and Shanghai Industrial Development, among 14 stocks, hit the limit.
Under the sector rotation, we can look at the Wolf Team's performance in a week (attached chart): Jinli Technology recommended on the 22nd, followed by two consecutive limit-ups, D威视讯 weekly increase 33.79%, Huayi Jiachen weekly increase 28.85%, Ring旭Electronics weekly increase 28.72%, Shunwang Technology weekly increase 25.79%, Dongfang Guoxin weekly increase 25.19%, Jiacreate Vision weekly increase 21.453%, Yaoji Poker weekly increase 19.78%, Xin Kaipu weekly increase 18.98%, Leeman Optoelectronics weekly increase 18.22%.
On Friday, the market slightly opened higher and vibrated in a narrow space between 2417-2405. It gathered momentum around 2409.
In the afternoon, banks and real estate suddenly erupted, igniting the enthusiasm for index rise. The two markets quickly climbed, breaking through the resistances of 2425 and 2433, and the SSE Index created a new rebound high.
Approaching the gap resistance around 2450. The weekly line also showed a beautiful six consecutive gains.
Annual report season heats up, who is the next gold mine?
Relevant thematic articles: http://cyworld.ifensi.com/ps2/diary/diary_view.php?mh_id=2011980174&diary_date=20120226&postid=440134