In today's world, with the increasingly fierce competition of comprehensive national strength, the rapid development of economic globalization, the enhancement of economic strength has apparently become an indispensable important factor. The competition which takes economy as its central content will inevitably become an important front of the competition of a country's overall strength.
For a long time, countless politicians and scholars have racked their brains to explore the logical clues of economic rise and fall, producing many enlightening works and rich practices for today. However, the rise and fall of the economy is a difficult puzzle that is hard to have a final answer. This is not only due to the complexity of the problem itself, but also because the world is changing, history is progressing, science and technology are developing. The trajectory of the rise and fall of the economy in different countries has its internal connection and regularity, but it is by no means a simple repetition.
Since the 20th century, Germany, Japan, and the United States have had very typical significance in terms of economic recovery. In this process, there is always one or several strong industries accompanying each recovery, becoming the dominant force and engine. Therefore, elaborating on their historical trajectories and summarizing their development laws will be especially beneficial to the current economic recovery of China.
As the saying goes, learn from history to understand the future. With continuous and strong development, and with the "protection of eight" being without any suspense, China will enter a key period of economic recovery in 2010. In the coming year, whether the real estate industry can once again ignite the fire of China's economic recovery, take on the role of the "engine" of China's economic take-off, and fully play its role as a pillar and dominant industry, has become a major issue we cannot avoid.
-- Preface
The Upper Chapter: Real Estate - The "Backbone" of China's Economy
The driving role of real estate on the economy
When people look back at the 20th century, they will find that all of humanity was in a great upheaval. The evolution and competition of various social ideologies influenced the fate of different countries and regions, and changed the world's pattern. In the last twenty years of the 20th century, in the East of the world, China carried out a highly effective social reform. In 1978, the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee proposed to focus on economic construction, opening up a new situation of China's reform, opening-up, and socialist modernization, starting a new journey of struggle, and giving the Chinese people full confidence to stand on the starting line of the new century and new stage. Over the past 60 years, China has welcomed an important strategic opportunity period for national development, and the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects has inspired every Chinese person on the road to economic recovery.
Looking at the global scene, whether developed or developing countries, all pay close attention to the development of the housing industry without exception. This is because housing is closely linked to changes in the national economy and society, and has a significant impact on the ups and downs of the economy and the stability of society. In the past 20 years, under the strong impetus of housing system reform, China's residential construction has achieved remarkable development recognized worldwide. In 2007, the proportion of commercial housing investment in urban residential investment reached 85%, and the proportion of completed area in urban housing supply exceeded 72%. The balance of real estate loans broke through 480 billion yuan, accounting for 18.4% of financial institutions' loan balance. The added value of the real estate industry accounted for 4.75% of GDP.
According to estimates, every 10 billion yuan of real estate investment can indirectly expand consumer demand by 4.8 billion yuan. In 2001, the country completed a real estate development investment of 642.5 billion yuan, adding 126.1 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with a direct pulling effect on economic growth of about 1.3%. By expanding consumer demand, the entire indirect contribution of real estate to economic growth was 0.6%. According to conservative estimates, at least half of it was realized in the same year, meaning an indirect contribution to economic growth in 2001 of 0.3%. From 1980 to 2007, the total output value of the construction industry developed from 28.693 billion yuan to 500.19 billion yuan. The number of people employed in the construction industry increased from 8.54 million to 30.85 million. The proportion of the added value of the construction industry in GDP has remained stable at around 5.5% for many years.
In the case where the consumer market is not vigorous enough, stimulating economic development, real estate becomes an industry with a larger driving role. An economist once said that to promote economic development, residents should be encouraged to move more often. According to calculations, if residential construction increases by 10 percentage points, it is expected to drive a one-percentage-point increase in gross national product. At the same time, with the launch of housing consumption, personal housing mortgage loans have grown rapidly. In 2001, the additional amount of personal housing mortgage loans alone reached 222.1 billion yuan, equivalent to 2.3 percentage points of GDP for that year. By the end of 2002, the balance of personal housing mortgage loans nationwide reached 559.8 billion yuan, 43 times that of the end of 1997.
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