February ushered in the Spring Festival Golden Week holiday. Hotel rooms are equipped with electric kettles, and this year being a warm winter is suitable for travelers to go out, leading to optimistic expectations for the tourism industry. Looking at the hotel and tourism index of February's weather patterns over the past 9 years and comparing it with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index's increase/decrease situation, the hotel and tourism index has outperformed the market 7 times. Among these, the second half of February saw the hotel and tourism sector outperforming the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 6 times, while the first half of February outperformed 5 times. Although in early 2010, northern temperatures reached historic lows, this will not suppress travelers' movements, especially as the first day of the lunar new year coincides with Valentine's Day, leading to a potential significant increase in tourist numbers and revenue. We predict a 20% year-on-year increase in tourism revenue during the 2010 Spring Festival Golden Week, while the China Tourism Academy predicts an increase of around 18%.
This year's Spring Festival holiday coincides with Valentine's Day, making popular destinations such as Hainan, Guilin, and Heilongjiang even more favored during the annual Spring Festival period. With the added factor of Valentine's Day, these cities are expected to gain even more attention. This year's Hainan tourism quotes have increased by 20% compared to last year, driven by rising hotel and airfare prices. From the first day of the lunar new year to the sixth day, a five-star hotel's minimum daily rate is 3,000 yuan, and economy hotels' prices have doubled, yet high prices have not suppressed tourists' consumption.
The Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway passes through Hubei, Hunan, and Guangdong provinces, with regionally related companies including Dongfang Hotel, Huatian Hotels, and ST Zhangjiajie. The performance growth space for listed companies benefiting from the Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway during the Spring Festival Golden Week is relatively large. We maintain the "增持" (Increase) investment rating for Huatian Hotels and the "中性" (Neutral) investment rating for Dongfang Hotel and ST Zhangjiajie. Dongfang Hotel also benefits from the Guangzhou Asian Games.
Considering all factors comprehensively, there are three main lines for future investment in tourism-related companies: First, the expectation of the Spring Festival tourism market, suggesting attention to Huatian Hotels (000428), which benefits from the Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway. Second, the Shanghai World Expo should be a highlight of the tourism industry, focusing on beneficiaries like China Youth Travel Service (600138) and Jinjiang Shares (600754). Third, the Guangzhou Asian Games beneficiaries, such as Dongfang Hotel (000524). We recommend "买入" (Buy) for China Youth Travel Service, "增持" (Increase) for Huatian Hotels and Jinjiang Shares. According to the *Securities Times*.
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