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Against the backdrop of risks of a global economic slowdown, European and American stock markets plummeted across the board, with all indices falling by 3%-5%. The prices of commodity futures were severely hit, and crude oil experienced its largest single-week drop in three months. Meanwhile, the bond yields of Spain, Italy, and Germany all reached new highs.
The domestic futures market also suffered heavy losses on August 5, with metals and energy chemical products dropping significantly, while agricultural products saw relatively smaller declines. Zhengzhou cotton stopped its fall and rebounded, showing a positive trend against the market. From the market performance, as of the noon closing, in metal futures, the SHFE copper 1110 contract was quoted at 69,250 yuan, down 3.20%; the SHFE zinc 1110 contract was quoted at 17,355 yuan, down 4.98%, with this contract once hitting the daily limit down in the morning; the SHFE aluminum 1110 contract hit the daily limit down, quoted at 17,485 yuan; the SHFE lead 1109 contract was quoted at 16,270 yuan, down 4.07%; the gold 1112 contract was quoted at 344 yuan, down 0.45%; the rebar 1201 contract was quoted at 4,840 yuan, down 1.85%.
Yesterday, after the London aluminum opened, it moved slightly upward. In the evening, the European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, and ECB President Trichet said that bond purchases had not stopped. Traders discovered that the European Central Bank was buying Portuguese and Irish bonds in the market but did not buy Spanish and Italian bonds, causing panic in the market. The market then fell sharply and finally closed at 2,496 points, down 35.75 points, with a decline of 1.41%. LME inventory decreased by 9,725 tons to 4.4218 million tons, and the canceled warrant was 7.81%. After the sharp fall, London aluminum returned to its previous low point, systemic risks erupted, and the outlook for the future market is not optimistic.
Analyst Olivier Jakob said that for the crude oil market, macroeconomic indicators determine demand, even the most bullish analysts have lowered their expectations for crude oil consumption after the debt issues in Europe and America. The market is concerned about the global economy possibly falling back into a recession similar to 2008, also known as a double-dip recession. At the same time, technical analysts indicated that from the chart patterns, as the nearby contracts broke below the 100-day moving average, the technical outlook for crude oil prices remains quite weak.
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