Domestic diesel prices show a wholesale-retail inversion; oil prices may rise within this week
The latest data from Enmodo Information shows that as of the close of international oil prices on October 15 (no trading on weekends), the weighted average change rate of international oil prices in Brent, Dubai, and Cinta was 3.79%, just short of the 4% adjustment red line. Analysts believe that at the current level, there is a very high possibility that the international oil price change rate will break through 4% today, and it is highly likely that domestic oil prices will be adjusted within this week.
"The continuous rise in international oil prices has directly driven up domestic refined oil wholesale prices, leading to market expectations that domestic refined oil prices will soon be adjusted," said Enmodo Information analyst Liao Kaishun.
In this round of increases, diesel wholesale prices have consistently been leading the rise, with some regions even showing an inverted situation where local refineries' wholesale prices are higher than those of the two major oil companies. Data from Enmodo Information shows that in the past month, gasoline prices have risen by 100 yuan per ton, while yesterday's 0# diesel wholesale price rose on average by 82 yuan, reaching 7298 yuan/ton, which is already higher than the retail price. The 0# diesel price from Shandong local refineries surged by 300 yuan/ton in just three days.
Currently, the mainstream transaction price for 0# diesel from Shandong local refineries is 7500-7600 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, the current挂牌price for 0# diesel from the two major oil companies in the Shandong market is 7210-7240 yuan/ton, with local refinery wholesale prices exceeding those of the two major oil companies by around 350 yuan/ton. "An inversion between local refineries and main operators is quite rare," said an analyst from China National Petroleum Corporation, attributing the surge in diesel prices from Shandong local refineries directly to the tight supply of resources from the two major oil companies in surrounding provinces.
■ Analysis
"Diesel will continue to lead the rise"
Regarding the current situation of skyrocketing diesel prices and relatively stable gasoline prices, Enmodo Information analyst Liao Kaishun stated that the most important factor behind the price increase remains the impact of pricing expectations. At the same time, local governments conducted energy-saving and emission-reduction campaigns in September, prompting many enterprises to face power curtailments, leading to increased market demand for diesel generators and thus raising the demand for diesel. However, the proportion of domestic diesel used for power generation still accounts for a relatively small part of total demand.
For the phenomenon of diesel wholesale prices leading the rise each time before price adjustments, an unnamed market insider told the reporter that since gasoline is more flammable and explosive compared to diesel, diesel stockpiling is much more convenient. Building a diesel storage facility costs only tens of thousands of yuan and does not require strict approval. In contrast, building a gasoline reserve warehouse is much more difficult, requiring the application for hazardous materials licenses, and the storage conditions are far more stringent than those for diesel. "Each time domestic oil prices are about to rise, diesel prices go up first."
■ Background
According to the regulations issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in the "Interim Measures for Oil Price Management", when the moving average price of international crude oil over 22 consecutive working days changes by more than 4%, domestic refined oil prices can be correspondingly adjusted. Since October, international oil prices have remained above $80. Affected by this, the three-place crude change rate, which measures whether domestic refined oil prices will change, began to turn from negative to positive and gradually approached 4%. As of the time of writing, the New York crude oil futures price was reported at $81.08 per barrel.
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