The chemical market is on the decline, when will the "bull market" appear?

by qxing0001 on 2009-06-17 16:02:45

Chemical Information Network (http://www.huagongxinxi.com/) reviewed the overall trend of the chemical market. After experiencing the "spring" rally in the chemical market in March and April, a few products continued to rise in April, but most products fell rationally in May due to excessive previous increases. There are three highlights of the chemical market trend in May:

Firstly, the favorable trends of upstream and downstream markets continue to rise. In May, among the 37 chemical products surveyed, 7 showed a continuation of the April price increase and continued to climb. However, compared with the general increase of more than 10% or even 30% in April, the trend in May was relatively calm. Among these seven products, crude benzene and stearic acid still stood out, ranking first and second in terms of increase. For example, crude benzene increased by 15.38% in April and continued to rise by 20% in May, jumping to the top of the increase list; stearic acid increased by 25.45% in April and ranked second in May with an increase of 11.43%. The cumulative increase of these two products from April to May reached over 35%.

Secondly, market speculation and rebound after stopping falling. Products that experienced a decline in April and a rise in May were few. Among the 37 chemical products surveyed in May, only 3 belonged to this type: toluene, xylene, and polyformaldehyde. Toluene fell by 3.7% in April and rose by 7.84% in May; xylene fell by 4.1% in April and rose by 5.17% in May; polyformaldehyde fell by 4.65% in April and rose by 2.44% in May. From the data, it can be seen that the fluctuations in these three products were not significantly different. Although the downstream demand did not significantly increase, the production capacity was not high, and the social inventory was low, indicating obvious market speculation.

Thirdly, sharp downturn after a boom. After a significant increase in April, the market trend turned sharply downward in May. Among the 37 chemical products surveyed in May, 7 showed this trend. Phenol, acetone, TDI, acetic acid, and epichlorohydrin were the most typical examples. Taking the trend of phenol and acetone as an example, after a significant increase in April, the sales of downstream products of phenol were average. The operating rate of industries such as phenolic resin and molding plastics was about 60%, which is at a low level, and producers basically produced according to contracts.

Currently, the main focus is on consuming the previous inventory, resulting in weak demand for phenol. The market sentiment is cautious, and the trading atmosphere is quiet. Similarly, the downstream industries of acetone have low operating rates, and manufacturers produce according to contracts, leading to weak demand for acetone. This has caused difficulties in shipping for acetone manufacturers, increasing inventory pressure in East China region, and slightly declining market prices.

For more information about the chemical market trend, please visit Chemical Network: http://www.huagongxinxi.com/

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